Modelling industry transition to climate neutrality, sustainability and circularity (Processes4Planet partnership) (RIA) -

Expected Outcome

Processes4Planet’s Horizon Europe public private partnership ambition is to achieve a profound change in the way the materials that citizens need to sustain their quality of life are produced. Processes4Planet is about transforming European process industries to make them circular and achieve overall climate neutrality at EU level by 2050, while enhancing their global competitiveness. Modelling capacity and scenarios are needed to chart the pathways towards climate neutrality. Projects outcomes will enable the achievement of the objectives of Processes4Planet partnership by contributing to new framework conditions to generate a market for climate neutral and circular solutions (related P4Planet operational objective 10). They will support EU climate ambitions and, following the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on climate mitigation recommendations,[1] allow for actions throughout value chains to promote all mitigation options, including energy and materials efficiency, circular material flows, as well as abatement technologies and transformational changes in production processes.

Projects are expected to contribute to the following outcomes:

• Development of a model, enhancement of existing modelling tools[2] towards understanding the pathways for industry, and Energy Intensive Industries in particular, to contribute to EU’s climate neutrality;
• Modelling of scenarios of possible pathways of how industry, and Energy Intensive Industries in particular, can become climate neutral according to the following five dimensions: (1) their energy demand and use and energy efficiency, (2) their emissions including process emissions; (3) in use of raw materials, chemicals and water (e.g. via increasing the use of circular approaches and material substitution, also in view of ensuring affordability of industrial products); (4) their production of consumer goods/equipment/construction products (e.g. looking at sustainability of products and embedded carbon – a preliminary approach only); (5) possibility of replacing fossil carbon in materials by more sustainable streams (e.g. recycled carbon from industrial emissions, from waste, sourced from sustainable biomass or directly from the atmosphere[3]);
• Facilitate future EU and national industry, climate and energy policy assessments. Climate neutrality of industry will be a strong priority for the EU and national policies by 2030 and towards 2050 as industry is considered as hard-to-abate sector[4]. Any policy initiatives on the EU or national level will require a robust, forward-looking analytical basis interlinked with macro-economic and energy system trends and such can be provided by modelling;
• Set the climate neutrality transition pathways for process industries in an open and transparent manner via design, modelling, and assessment of pathways for these industries. Modelling exercises can set the framework conditions and project market uptake of transformative solutions and products;
• Enhance the knowledge about climate neutrality pathways for industry and academia as the resulting modelling capacity (model code) and input data should be fully transparent and published under an open-source licencing.

Scope

Development of the model

Currently the modelling tools to represent EU industry’s pathways to climate neutrality are not fully developed. The new modelling capacity should cover historical development starting in1990 and projections up to 2070 and this for the European Union and Associated Countries altogether and each Member State/country separately as well as for European Economic Area according to the five dimensions outlined in the expected outcomes. Considering that materials, chemicals and goods are sourced and traded globally, or at least regionally, global sourcing and trade has to be captured with relevant granularity and based on exogenous assumptions and/or links with global trade models;. Considering that these industries link with other sectors of the economy, innovative ways have to be found to integrate such capacity in a fully consistent energy system picture and to link it with broader macro-economic developments (notably as far as demand for industrial products is concerned) and meta-trends such as digitalisation.

The proposals should be built in a modular manner and progressively lead to the development of an integrated modelling capacity allowing to capture the economics and behavioural aspects of demand, production and trade of materials, as well as techno-economic trajectories of the industrial sectors identified above. That would include (but not necessarily limited to) concepts from system dynamics modelling (for materials flows and stocks), techno-economic modelling (for the economics of production costs, elasticity of demand or trade effects), macro-economic modelling (socio-economics impacts), as well as agent-based modelling (choices of materials or technologies). The proposal should produce first results available for review by the project midterm.

The proposals as a part of its validation and stakeholders’ involvement will enable to participate in peer-review processes, scientific conferences and publish in scientific journals and create possibilities for a feedback loop from stakeholders. The modelling capacity should be continuously developed based on the feedback from stakeholders.

Modelling of scenarios

Secondly, the proposals should deploy this new modelling capacity to explore, through the development of several “what if” scenarios, capturing all dimensions mapped above in a consistent way. The scenarios produced with the model should be contrasted but internally consistent in their policy and economic contexts, presenting different pathways for climate neutrality transition in terms of energy needs, addressing the process emissions as well needs and supply of material and technological options to produce the materials in needed quantities. In addition, a preliminary approach for tracing the carbon embedded in products and replacing fossil carbon in materials should be explored.

Proposals should seek cooperation and give input to the Processes4Planet partnership Advisory Committee panels,[5] i.e., “Impact Panel” and as social innovation is concerned, the “Feedback Panel”.

Proposals should build on or seek collaboration with existing projects and develop synergies with other relevant European, national or regional initiatives, funding programmes and comparative tools e.g., the Energy and Industry Geography Lab of the Joint Research Centre.

Cooperation with other selected projects under this topic is strongly encouraged.

This topic implements the co-programmed European partnership Processes4Planet.

[1]IPCC report on “Mitigation of Climate Change’, April 2022

[2]Building on previous and ongoing related projects either from specific sectors or across different sectors notably as discussed at Energy Modelling Platform for the EU: https://www.energymodellingplatform.eu/

[3]Sustainable Carbon Cycles Communication (COM (2021) 800 final

[4]compared to buildings sector or power generation

[5]Memorandum of Understanding for the Co-programmed European Partnership Processes4Planet (P4Planet), 3. Governance. http://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/research_and_innovation/funding/documents/c_2021_4113_f1_annex_en_v3_p1_1213806.pdf

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